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For this individual simulation exercise, you will answer 10 questions based on an election database.
Using a fictional congressional district, we have developed an election database from the last four elections. Your assignment is to answer 10 questions based on those statistics. You will apply your knowledge of the targeting terms and perform simple calculations, practicing your ability to get a sense of a district based on election data and past performance. (Please note that our intention in this simulation is not to highlight one party over another—it is to focus on looking at the partisan performance of a district.)
Download the “Sample Targeting Data” spreadsheet by clicking the link below.
Use the data in the spreadsheet to answer the questions below. Be prepared to defend your decision. However, you do not need to go in depth with your answers.
How many doors would you need to knock on in Clay County? Why?
In this two-way race, what is the “win number?”
If it was an average year, how many voters would you expect to vote in Lincoln County? Why?
If all of the registered voters showed up and voted in Clay County, how many votes would we predict a conservative candidate would get? Why?
In a normal election turnout, how many conservative voters would you expect in Washington County? Why?
What is likely the most liberal precinct? Why?
If you had only enough time and resources to call swing voters in Adams County and Jackson County, how many voters would you be calling? Why?
If you expect to actually reach and identify 50% of all of the swing voters for candidate preference, and you expect 25% of them will be undecided, how many identified undecided voters will be part of your persuasion voter contact effort? Why?
Which precinct would you target for voter registration? Why?
What County would be your top targets for GOTV? Why?
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