Strategic Estimate of the Caucasus Region

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The paper consists of two parts: a. A two page Background/Discussion paper; and b. One page Conclusion and Recommendations SCENARIO AND SPECIFIC INSTRUCTIONS It is December 2019. You are an Action Officer (AO) and a member of a EUCOM J5 (ECJ5) Joint Planning Group (JPG). As directed by the Chief of Staff through the J5, your JPG has completed an update of the Strategic Estimate (see C207 slides provided) for the Caucasus Region to get the Commander up to speed on the situation in the region regarding Ahurastan and provide the basis for a commander’s estimate and, if necessary, development of plans.
Following the successful briefing of the Strategic Estimate, the Combatant Commander learned that he would have to travel to Washington to join the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff at congressional hearings on the situation in the Caucasus region regarding Ahurastan. The Combatant Commander will depart for Washington sometime in the next few days.
You have been tasked to prepare a paper for the Combatant Commander to use in testimony before congressional committees and in meetings in Washington regarding Ahurastan. The intent is to provide analysis of the Strategic Estimate, not to regurgitate content. STRATEGIC ESTIMATE OF THE CAUCASUS REGION
1. BACKGROUND/DISCUSSION. The paper will not exceed three pages. It is designed to provide maximum information in a manner that is easily absorbed. The format is appropriate for use whenever the need for presenting summarized information arises. You will use no more than two pages to summarize the Strategic Estimate that you were provided. This is a narrative summary not a cut and paste. Within this paper, you must include key points from each section of the Strategic Estimate: Introduction, Strategic Environment, Strategic Direction, Strategic and Operational Challenges, Potential Opportunities, and Assessment of Risks. Use complete, concise sentences and cover sub-points clearly and concisely. Use the headings below to delineate each section of the paper.
a. Introduction b. Strategic Environment c. Strategic Direction d. Strategic and Operational Challenges e. Potential Opportunities (for each option using DIME) Option 1: Diplomatic, Information, Military, Economic Option 2: Diplomatic, Information, Military, Economic Option 3: Diplomatic, Information, Military, Economic f. Assessment of Risks & Mitigation
2. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS. This section is the opportunity for the Action Officer (you) to apply your judgment, weigh the alternatives, and make a recommendation concerning HQ USEUCOM positions and/or policy. You will use no more than one page for your recommendation.
Ensure you address the criteria of Feasible, Acceptable, Suitable, Complete and Distinguishable in your recommendation.
Ensure you justify your recommendation by explaining why it is superior in comparison to the other possible options. You may use the decision matrix slide as a tool to help you determine the superior option.
Slides will be provided upon request.

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